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The California Public Wildfire Model

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Growing wildfire threats demand innovation and action. Our goal is to reduce the destruction to communities from wildfire disasters and support a sustainable insurance sector. The California Public Wildfire Catastrophe Model will make wildfire-related loss analysis available to those working on wildfire and insurance resiliency.

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara sponsored legislation in 2025 (SB 429, Chapters of Chapter 541, Statutes of 2025) to establish the nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model. The California Public Wildfire Model will be a new source of assessment and analysis for those working to better protect communities from the increasing threat of wildfire disasters. This web page contains information for researchers and educators who will be charged with building this model, and others interested in learning more about this new tool.

The Public Wildfire Model will support a broad community safety agenda.

California has experienced 14 of the deadliest and most destructive wildfires in state history since 2017. While many wildfires occur in rural areas away from towns and cities, the impact on homes and businesses is escalating, along with declining insurance availability in areas at greatest risk. Publicly accessible information about the impact of wildfires on communities supports the efforts of those working to reduce risk and preserve insurance options in the state.

While wildfires have occurred throughout California history, historical loss data may not reflect current or near-term conditions. Catastrophe models estimate the probability of loss from possible future extreme or catastrophic events by simulating thousands of plausible catastrophic events scenarios based on realistic parameters derived from the science of the peril being modeled, its loss drivers, and the mitigation strategies employed to reduce future losses. A wildfire catastrophe model quantifies the financial impact by estimating a range of direct, indirect, and certain types of residual losses.

The Public Wildfire Model will be powered by the innovation engine of California’s universities – funded by a startup grant from the Department of Insurance.

The legislation creates the Wildfire Safety and Risk Mitigation Program at the Department of Insurance – charged with issuing grants appropriated by the Legislature and Governor to a university-based center. The Department will seek submissions from a university-led consortium that brings together expertise in fire science, wildfire risk mitigation, actuarial science, data and computational science, and any other required discipline.

Commissioner Lara’s goal is to create a public wildfire catastrophe model with direct benefits for California communities:

Increasing research and development on wildfire risk mitigation strategies
Creating training opportunities for students and professionals in the growing field of risk modeling
Informing actuarial analyses and supporting effective insurance regulation and financial oversight of insurance, including for insurance company solvency and risk management

While frequently used in the insurance context, a public wildfire catastrophe model could serve other uses, including:

Providing insights on the financial benefits of resilient retrofitting and building
Providing insight for state and local emergency planners
Aiding wildfire safety efforts that protect lives and property

Timeline of the California Public Wildfire Model

September 2024: Commissioner Lara initiated the Public Wildfire Catastrophe Model strategy group, chaired by Cal Poly Humboldt, to make recommendations.

January 2025: Commissioner Lara sponsored the California Public Wildfire Model Act(Senate Bill 429, authored by Sen. Dave Cortese).

May 2025: The Cal Poly Humboldt-led strategy group made recommendations to the Department of Insurance for a publicly accessible model developed by a university consortium.

September-October 2025: The Legislature passes and Governor Newsom signs SB 429 into law.

November 2025: The Department of Insurance issued a Fact Sheet describing the grant process.

January 2026: The Department anticipates releasing a Request for Expressions of Interest. The Department will evaluate the responses and select consortiums to submit a full Request for Proposal.

Q2 2026: The Department will issue a Request for Proposals to selected consortiums.

By end of 2026: The Department will select a consortium and issue a startup grant to initiate the California Public Wildfire Catastrophe Model development.